Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Department of Forest Management, Faculty of Forest Sciences, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
2
Department Of Agricultural Extension and Education, Faculty of Agricultural Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
3
Researcher in Rural Development and Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, Golestan Governorate, Golestan, Iran
10.22034/iwm.2026.2080375.1259
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction: Illegal logging and timber smuggling from forests are among the human factors contributing to the degradation of the Hyrcanian forests in northern Iran. The continuation of this growing trend can have significant consequences in the region. Despite numerous protective policies and planning efforts by the Natural Resources and Watershed Management Organization, this problem has not yet been resolved. Various reasons have led to changes in the type and intensity of timber smuggling in forests. Therefore, understanding and identifying the causes of illegal logging and timber smuggling is a necessary prerequisite for improving current management measures and designing future actions. In this regard, the present study aimed to determine the stability of the timber smuggling system in the forests of Golestan Province using the opinions of local stakeholders.
Materials and methods: This research is descriptive and survey-based. The study population consisted of pioneer local communities, livestock breeders, farmers, village heads, and members of the Islamic councils of 15 target forest-dwelling and forest-edge villages in Golestan Province. Accordingly, 30 individuals from the statistical population were selected as the sample size using a judgmental sampling method. To further specify the most important factors, the Delphi technique was employed. After a three-stage interview process, theoretical saturation was reached in the third stage, and no new factors were introduced. Subsequently, for final confirmation and classification of the identified factors, the focus group technique was used. Sixteen main factors were finalized, based on which the research questionnaire was prepared and distributed among the selected participants. After data collection, the information was entered into Excel. The final value of each cell was determined by the mean of the opinions of the 30 participants. To determine and analyze the stability or instability of the timber smuggling system in the forests of Golestan Province with a futures studies approach, the MicMac software was used. In stable systems, the distribution of factors appears in the form of an “L” shape or within the scatter plot.
Results and Discussion: Results also revealed that factors such as “increased demand for timber in wood products,” “market boom and rising timber prices,” “livelihood dependence of local communities on forests,” “legal weaknesses and gaps in deterring forest violations,” “weaknesses in social forestry planning and participatory management,” and “weaknesses in supervisory forest protection management” were target indicators. These factors are more influenced by the timber smuggling system than they influence it. Therefore, identifying them can lead to significant improvements in the forest protection system. Based on the results, five factors—“reduction in the supply of state and private imported timber,” “development of ecotourism in forest villages,” “changes in the behavior and performance of timber smugglers in illegal timber extraction,” “welfare problems of forest protection forces and their performance weaknesses,” and “inconsistency between forest protection and development policies with the socio-economic needs of forest communities”—were identified as influenced indicators. These variables are not sources of change in the timber smuggling system but are affected by influencing and dual-impact variables.
Conclusion: The analyses indicate that continuous changes in the type and extent of timber smuggling increase the necessity of futures studies and planning in protective forest management. The results also revealed that the instability of the timber smuggling system in forest areas of the province requires measures such as creating alternative employment opportunities in villages, preparing a timber smuggling crisis map and deploying protection forces accordingly, identifying legal gaps in deterring violations, aligning penalties with the type of offense, shortening the process of case handling, and promoting social forestry and participatory management.
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