Integrated Watershed Management

Integrated Watershed Management

Investigation of drought processes under climate change conditions in the future period using IPCC sixth assessment report (Case study: Qaen synoptic station)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Majid Havangi
Mahdi Amirabadizadeh
Mehdi Dastourani
Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
10.22034/iwm.2024.2033468.1161
Abstract
Extended abstract  
Introduction: The phenomenon of climate change, as one of the main drivers of the increase in greenhouse gases, has a significant impact on extreme events such as floods and droughts. Therefore, investigating the impact of climate change on these extreme phenomena is crucial for the planning and management of water resources in the future. Drought, along with its effects on natural resources, agricultural production, and economic and social development, is one of the fundamental challenges facing both Iran and the world. Since drought impacts various sectors of society—such as water resources, agriculture, and industry—it is essential to monitor and assess this phenomenon both now and, in the future, to plan effectively across different sectors. Considering that previous research relied on only one AOGCM model, primarily using the fourth or fifth reports, this study utilizes five CMIP6 climate models while incorporating the sixth assessment report. This research, therefore, discusses drought forecasting under climate change conditions using five climate models and two emission scenarios at the Qaen synoptic station.
 Materials and Methods: In this research, five large-scale models were used: ACCESS-ESM1-5, CNRM-CM6-1, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MRI-ESM2-0, and MPI-ESM1-2-L-R. Two emission scenarios, SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic) and SSP2-4.5 (intermediate), along with the LARS-WG statistical downscaling method, were applied. First, the LARS-WG model was evaluated using the basic data. After calibrating and validating the model, temperature and precipitation parameters were produced for the future period. Then, the SPEI and SPI drought indices were calculated and analyzed for the base period (1990-2020) and the future period (2025-2055).
 Results and Discussion: The bR² values for the minimum and maximum temperatures were 0.99, and the RMSE values for these temperatures were 0.308 and 0.384, respectively, indicating the high accuracy of the model in downscaling temperature. For precipitation, the bR² value was 0.74, and the RMSE was 4.001, showing the model's good performance in downscaling precipitation data for the base period. The amount of precipitation increased or decreased depending on the emission scenario and the month. The simulated average temperature in both scenarios shows an increasing trend compared to the base period. Based on the 12-month SPI index, the number of dry and wet months increased relative to the base period. Additionally, the number of normal months in the future period decreased compared to the base period in both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. According to the SPEI index in both scenarios, the number of dry months in the future period decreased compared to the base period, while the number of wet months showed only a slight increase.
Conclusion: The LARS-WG model demonstrated good performance in downscaling precipitation and temperature for the future period. The results indicate an increasing trend in average downscaled temperature in both scenarios compared to the base period. Precipitation varied depending on the scenario and month. Findings revealed that the frequency of wet and dry periods on a short-term scale (6 months) was higher than on a longer time scale (12 months), suggesting that as the time scale increases, the frequency of wet and dry periods decreases, while their duration increases. Furthermore, in the future period (2025-2055), the frequency of droughts is expected to decrease, but with increased duration compared to the base period. The number of dry months in the future period will be significantly reduced, while the number of normal and wet months will increase slightly. The most severe drought, characterized by high continuity, is predicted to occur from 2045 to 2055.
Keywords
Temperature
precipitation
Ensemble models
Down scaling
LARS-WG
SPI and SPEI

Subjects

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  • Receive Date 06 July 2024
  • Revise Date 19 November 2024
  • Accept Date 11 December 2024