Evaluation of the climate change effect on meteorological parameters using LARS-WG, Case study: Abadeh station

Razmkhah, Homa; Masoudi, Abdollah; Rostami Ravari, Amin; Fararouie, Alireza

doi:10.22034/iwm.2023.1987752.1058

Evaluation of the climate change effect on meteorological parameters using LARS-WG, Case study: Abadeh station

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Homa Razmkhah ¹

Abdollah Masoudi ²

Amin Rostami Ravari ¹

Alireza Fararouie ¹

¹ Assisstant professor, Department of Water Engineering, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran

² M.S. student, Department of Water Engineering, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran

10.22034/iwm.2023.1987752.1058

Abstract

Extended Abstract
Introduction
Climate change has a significant impact on water resources and environment, which are reflected in agriculture, society and economy. Using general circulation model (GCM) with statistical downscaling models is a method of climate change assessment. Due to the location of Abadeh in semi-arid region of Fars province and Iran, population growth, industrial and mining development, and getting to the sustainable agriculture, evaluation of climate change impacts on meteorological parameters seemed necessary. The aim of this study is to assess meteorological parameter variations of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature under climate change condition in order to use them in water resources management of water consumptions, and to decrease the negative impacts of climate change on different parts of the environment in Abadeh region.
Materials and methods
In this study, the effect of climate change on meteorological parameters of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation was assessed, using HADCM3 as general circulation model and LARS-WG5.5 statistical model for downscaling, in Abadeh station for the base time period of (1993-2017). After assessment of model for parameters simulation, using model fitness criteria, daily value of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation were simulated for A1B, B1 and A2 scenarios. Then, the results were analysed.
Results and Discussion
Evaluation of the model showed that rainfall forecasting had the maximum error, and minimum and maximum temperature were simulated with more precision. Comparison of the mean and standard deviation of observed and simulated monthly precipitation of Abadeh station in the (1993-2017) base time period showed that the mean of simulated precipitation is more than the observed precipitation in March, April, August and September. The standard deviation of monthly simulated precipitation is more than the observed one in February, March, April, August and September. Comparison of the observed and simulated monthly minimum temperature of Abadeh station in the (1993-2017) base time period showed that the mean of simulated monthly minimum temperature is the same as the observed one in most of the months. The standard deviation of simulated monthly minimum temperature is less than the observed one in all of the months. The future trend of maximum temperature is the same as minimum temperature.
After model assessment, the parameters were forecasted for the next three periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2099-2080, under three gas emission scenarios of B1, A1B and A2. Comparison of forecasted parameters over three periods, with the based period values, showed that in the 2011-2030 time period, the precipitation value increases in three scenarios of A2, A1B and B1, respectively. In the 2046-2065 time period, the precipitation increases in all scenarios too, with the same order of 2011-2030 time period, but the variation of scenarios is different. In the 2080-2099 time period, precipitation value increases in B1 scenario, but decreases in the other two scenarios. Comparison of forecasted minimum temperature over three future periods, with the base time period values, showed that in all of the time periods, minimum temperature value increases in the three scenarios of A2, A1B and B1, respectively. The percent of increase will be more from 2011-2030 period to 2046-2065 time period and, to 2080-2099 time period. The future trend of maximum temperature is the same as minimum temperature.
Conclusions
The precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature for the next 70 years were forecasted, using HADCAM3 as a GCM model and LARS-WG for statistical downscaling. Results showed an increase in minimum and maximum temperature in all months and seasons of the three time periods. Precipitation increases in 2011-2030 time period and 2046-2065 time period in all of three scenarios of A2, A1B and B1. Precipitation decreases in most of the scenarios of 2080-2099 time period. These all verify climate change in Abadeh region. The increase in evapotranspiration, water requirement of crops, and the decrease of water storage are some of the climate change effects, which need management to reduce damage on water resources, agriculture and environment, using the obtained results. Climate change assessment of the other stations of Fars province and other regions of Iran is suggested for comprehensive planning readiness.

Keywords

Climate change

HADCAM3

LARS-WG model

Abadeh

20.1001.1.27834581.1402.3.2.2.7

Subjects

Integrated Watershed Management

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