Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2
Department of Desert and Arid Zones Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
10.22034/iwm.2026.2079414.1258
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction: Arid and semi-arid regions are facing a water crisis due to climate change, declining water availability, population growth, and increasing water demand. These challenges necessitate continuous and accurate monitoring of environmental changes. The use of remote sensing data, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions that are highly vulnerable to water resource crises, provides effective tools for monitoring, prediction, and management across diverse climatic conditions. Accordingly, the present study aims to investigate the trends of climatic and environmental variables in the Bar-Arieh watershed, located in Razavi Khorasan Province, and to analyze the impacts of these changes. Understanding these trends is essential for supporting sustainable water resource management and for mitigating potential future water crises under the intensifying impacts of global climate change.
Materials and Methods: In this study, several statistical tests, including the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips–Perron (PP), Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS), Mann–Kendall, and Sen’s slope estimator, were employed to analyze trends in climatic and environmental variables in the Bar-Arieh watershed. The datasets used include precipitation, air temperature, and snow depth (42-year time series), vegetation cover (NDVI), soil moisture, snow cover (23-year time series), river discharge, and land surface temperature (70-year time series). These data were obtained from satellite products and local monitoring stations. Annual and seasonal trends were analyzed using stationarity tests and non-parametric trend analysis methods.
Results and Discussion: The results indicated that precipitation exhibited an increasing trend from 1984 to 2023, particularly during the spring and winter seasons. Additionally, precipitation variability intensified after 2000. River discharge showed a significant decreasing trend during the period from 1951 to 2021, especially in the autumn season. Air temperature demonstrated a significant upward trend throughout the study period, with the most pronounced increases observed in winter and spring. Rising temperatures, particularly in winter, can intensify evapotranspiration rates and consequently reduce available water resources. Soil moisture showed limited seasonal variability and did not exhibit a significant trend at the annual scale. Furthermore, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) displayed a significant increasing trend throughout the year, with the most notable increase occurring in autumn. This upward trend in vegetation cover may indicate an improvement in ecosystem conditions in recent years; however, ongoing climate change and declining water resources could potentially reverse this trend in the future. Overall, the findings reveal a complex and multifaceted relationship among climate change, water resources, and vegetation dynamics in the Bar-Arieh watershed.
Conclusion: The results of this study demonstrate that climate change has exerted significant impacts on climatic and environmental parameters in the Bar-Arieh watershed. Although increases in precipitation and temperature have been observed, they have coincided with a declining trend in river discharge, which may reflect the combined effects of natural and human-induced factors such as water abstraction, flow diversion, and increased evapotranspiration driven by rising temperatures. These changes pose serious challenges to agriculture and other water-dependent economic activities in the region. This study highlights the importance of addressing the impacts of climate change on local water resources and ecosystems. The findings provide a valuable scientific basis for policy-making and planning in water resource management and environmental protection in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly under the intensifying conditions of global climate change.
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