Viability Assessment of the Shazand Watershed in Markazi Province, Iran, using Some Hydroclimatic Factors

Bahlekeh, Marjan; Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza

doi:10.22034/iwm.2025.2047457.1192

Viability Assessment of the Shazand Watershed in Markazi Province, Iran, using Some Hydroclimatic Factors

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Marjan Bahlekeh

Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi

Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran

10.22034/iwm.2025.2047457.1192

Abstract

Extended Abstract
Introduction: The excessive exploitation of natural resources, driven by the unsustainable practices of human societies to meet growing population needs, has become a critical global issue, threatening the health and sustainability of watersheds. To mitigate these risks, effective management measures are essential to build resilient communities capable of withstanding natural events and disasters. Accurate quantification of ecological changes and the identification of key indicators for watershed management are crucial for promoting resilience and ecological sustainability. In this context, viability—defined as the ability of a watershed system to return to its resilience threshold—is a vital concept for assessing the restoration of health and sustainability. However, analyzing and evaluating viability requires a comprehensive understanding of the complex relationships among various variables. Despite its importance, no prior research has specifically addressed the assessment of watershed viability.
Materials and methods: This pioneering study aims to evaluate the viability of the Shazand Watershed in Markazi Province, Iran, based on its hydroclimatic characteristics. The study began by calculating selected hydroclimatic variables, followed by statistical analyses to identify and remove less relevant variables. Resilience and release thresholds were then determined for the remaining variables. The viability index was prioritized by comparing current conditions with these thresholds. Finally, the overall viability of the watershed was assessed by calculating the geometric mean of the hydroclimatic variables.
Results and Discussion: The modeling and zoning results revealed that the hydroclimatic viability index of the Shazand Watershed is 0.58, indicating an intermediate state. Notably, the prioritization of sub-watersheds using the viability method differs significantly from conventional estimation methods. While examining current conditions alone provides limited insights, comparing the variability of variables in resilient and release states with current conditions offers a more robust assessment. For instance, instead of taking management measures in sub-watershed 7 with high priority in the current conditions state, it is necessary to pay attention to sub-watershed 21 with viability, hydrological, and hydroclimatic priorities of 1, 4, and 1, respectively. Other high-priority watersheds include sub-watersheds 9, 20, 24, 16, 1, 11, and 15. The aforementioned sub-watersheds, especially 9, 20, and 11, are currently in good condition, but they have very low viability (high variability). Sub-watersheds 22, 5, and 4 are also among the sub-watersheds with high viability (low variability). By focusing on priority sub-watersheds, hydroclimatic conditions can be significantly improved, enhancing the stabilization of these areas. Key variables influencing viability include normal characteristic discharge and erosion rates, with industrial expansion in the region identified as a major driver of variability, particularly in sub-watersheds 3, 6, and 7.
Conclusion: This study demonstrates that identifying resilience and release thresholds for variables and comparing them with current conditions can help bring critical sub-watersheds closer to their resilience thresholds, preventing system collapse. Given the complexity of watershed systems and the multitude of factors influencing their performance, a comprehensive assessment of viability, incorporating all relevant variables, is essential for effective watershed management. The integration of modern technologies can further enhance our understanding of resources and environmental dynamics, ultimately improving comprehensive watershed management practices.

Keywords

Ecosystem Sustainability

Integrated Watershed Management

Released Threshold

Resilience Threshold

Watershed Elasticity

Subjects

Integrated Watershed Management

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