Integrated Watershed Management

Integrated Watershed Management

Streamflow forecasting under the impacts of climate change based on the combined output of CMIP6 models (Case study: Dez Dam)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Fahimeh Khadempour 1
Mahdi Amirabadizadeh 2
Yashar Falamarzi 3
1 Department of Water Engineering and Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
2 Department of Water Engineering and Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand and member of Drought and Climate Change Research Group, Birjand, Iran
3 Department of Climate Modeling and Forecasting Research Group, Climatology Research Institute, Mashhad, Iran
10.22034/iwm.2024.2022522.1133
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction: Surface runoff is one of the main reasons for erosion, sedimentation and reduction of river water quality. Therefore, it is important to predict the watershed response to precipitation events. Selecting an appropriate rainfall and runoff model for the basin is crucial for effectively planning and managing water resources. Moreover, the increase in greenhouse gases can lead to numerous adverse effects on all systems interacting with the climate. In this research, the effect of chandes in precipitation and temperature investigated using BCSD downscaling method based on a combination of the output of AOGCM models of the 6th IPCC report under two emission scenarios of SSP245 and SSP585. This study projected future climate change scenarios and investigated the simulation of runoff entering the reservoir based on these scenarios to forecast river flow to the Dez Dam reservoir located in Khuzestan province, Iran.
Materials and methods: To examine the effects of climate change on streamflow in Dez dam station, the output of six AOGCM models from the 6th IPCC assessment report was utilized. The output of these models includes temperature and precipitation data for the base period of 1991-2020 and the future period of 2030-2059 and under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios were extracted. Also, the simulation of the runoff entering the reservoir is based on two future climate scenarios in order to produce the river flow to the Dez dam reservoir.
Results and Discussion: The results of current research showed that the combined global climate model performs better than the other 6 individual models and also has a better fit with the observational data. Also, rainfall reduction in most months in SS245 scenario is more than SSP585. Temperature increases are more pronounced in the warmer months of the year than in the colder months. Furthermore, the results indicate that the IHACRES model effectively simulates flow during wet periods, or high flow rates, whereas its performance is less consistent during periods of low flow. The results indicate that the highest amount of increase in runoff in both scenarios compared to the observation period is in February at the rate of 248.20 m3/s in the SSP585 scenario and the lowest amount in January at the amount of 194.26m3/s in the SSP245 scenario.
Conclusions: In this research, the latest emission scenarios compiled in the 6th report of the IPCC were used and are more compatible with the climatic conditions of the planet. The results showed that the combined model performs better than the other 6 individual models; Therefore, the combined model was used to forecast the climate parameters of the study area under two emission scenarios of SSP245 and SSP585 in the future period (2030-2059). The results showed that the highest amount of rainfall occurs in the winter months. The temperature has increased in most months in both scenarios compared to the observation period. Therefore, upon reviewing the results, it is evident that there is good agreement between the measured and predicted values in the downscailing process. The BCSD model demonstrates strong performance in simulating precipitation and temperature at the Dez Dam station, making it suitable for estimation purposes. Also, based on the results, the IHACRES model has a good ability to simulate the flow in wet periods or, in other words, high discharges, while in low discharges, this adaptation is less. Investigating the impact of climate change on underground water resources and dam useful life is essential for water resources management. The results of this research can be useful in analyzing droughts, controlling destructive floods, allocating surface and underground water resources, increasing water regulation for drinking and agriculture, drought analysis, and comprehensive management of water resources at the basin level.
Keywords
BCSD
CMIP6
Downscale
Emission Scenarios
SSP

Subjects

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  • Receive Date 11 February 2024
  • Revise Date 20 March 2024
  • Accept Date 10 June 2024